Investigating the Effect of Fuel Moisture and Atmospheric Instability on PyroCb Occurrence over Southeast Australia

The incidence of pyro-cumulonimbus (pyroCb) caused by extreme wildfires has increased markedly in Australia over the last several decades. This increase can be associated with a dangerous escalation wildfire risk and severe stratospheric pollution events. Atmospheric fuel conditions are important influences on pyroCb occurrence, but exact causal relationships still not well understood. We used Continuous Haines Index (C-Haines) to represent atmospheric instability Fuel Moisture (FMI) moisture provide better insight into effects occurrence southeast Australia. C-Haines FMI were related probability employing logistic regression data gathered between 1980 2020. Emphasis is placed investigating independent combined C-Haines, as assessing their potential predict whether develops fire. main findings this study are: (1) high low values representative favorable for offset effect FMI—the addition model muted significance FMI; (2) among components air temperature lapse rate (CA) predictor than dryness component (CB); (3) there regional differences they have predictive New South Wales Victoria.